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Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2009)           

Each year since 1996, EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the projections included in previous editions of the AEO. Each year, the comparison adds the projections from the most recent AEO and updates the historical data to the most recently available.  The comparison summarizes the relationship of the AEO reference case projections since 1982 to realized outcomes by calculating the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2009.

  Annual Energy Outlook Restrospective Review, 2009 Report
   
pdf images Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Difference between AEO Reference Case Projections
             and Realized Outcomes
pdf images Table 2. Summary of Differences between AEO Reference Cases and Realized Outcomes
 
Actual vs. Reference Case Projection Tables
excel images Table 3. Gross Domestic Product
excel images Table 4. World Oil Prices
excel images Table 5. Total Petroleum Consumption
excel images Table 6. Domestic Crude Oil Production
excel images Table 7. Petroleum Net Imports
excel images Table 8. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices
excel images Table 9. Total Natural Gas Consumption
excel images Table 10. Natural Gas Production
excel images Table 11. Natural Gas Net Imports
excel images Table 12. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants
excel images Table 13. Total Coal Consumption
excel images Table 14. Coal Production
excel images Table 15. Average Electricity Prices
excel images Table 16. Total Electricity Sales
excel images Table 17. Total Energy Consumption
excel images Table 18. Total Residential Energy Consumption
excel images Table 19. Total Commercial Energy Consumption
excel images Table 20. Total Industrial Energy Consumption
excel images Table 21. Total Transportation Energy Consumption
excel images Table 22. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions
excel images Table 23. Energy Intensity