The Annual Energy Outlook diskette contains the annual forecasts from 1994 to 2015 for each of the five cases published in the Annual Energy Outlook 1997 (AEO). The five AEO cases are comprised of the Reference, Low Economic
Growth, High Economic Growth, Low World Oil Price, and High World Oil Price cases. All AEO cases are generated using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets through 2015.
Twenty-one tables are published in the AEO for the Reference case, containing data for 1994, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. In the AEO, the Low Economic Growth and High Economic Growth cases are presented in one set of twenty-one comparison tables, while the Low World Oil Price and High World Oil Price cases are presented in another set of comparison tables. Each set contains data for 1995, 2005, 2010, and 2015. The diskette does not contain these tables in comparison format, but as twenty-one separate tables for each case. The files containing these tables are in spreadsheet format.
The data values on the enclosed diskette match those published in the AEO Appendix tables. Forecasts for 1996, 1997, and 1998 on the diskette may differ from values published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, Fourth Quarter 1996 or Short-Term Energy Outlook, First Quarter 1997, which are the official EIA short-term forecasts and are based on more current information than the AEO.
The AEO reflects data and information available as of July 31, 1996. At that time, most 1995 data but only partial 1996 data were available.
Following is an instruction page which describes how the diskette files are organized and how to load the data onto your hard disk. If you have questions about the diskettes or how to use them, please contact Joseph Baumgartner at
(202) 586-1294. Questions concerning data should be directed to the most appropriate person on the contact list, which also follows.
Director, Office of Integrated Analysis
Energy Information Administration
For Further Information . . .
The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (email@example.com, 202/586-2222). General questions may be addressed to Arthur T. Andersen (firstname.lastname@example.org, 202/ 586-1441), Director of the Energy Demand and Integration Division; Scott Sitzer (email@example.com, 202/586-2308), Director of the Energy Supply and Conversion Division; or Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia. doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Modeling Analyst. Detailed
questions about the forecasts and related model components may be addressed to the following analysts:
Overview, Emissions - Susan H. Shaw (firstname.lastname@example.org, 202/586-4838)
Economic Activity - Ronald Early (email@example.com, 202/586-1398)
International Oil Markets - Daniel Butler (firstname.lastname@example.org, 202/586-9503)
Residential Demand - John Cymbalsky (email@example.com, 202/586-4815)
Commercial Demand - Erin Boedecker (firstname.lastname@example.org, 202/586-4791)
Industrial Demand - T. Crawford Honeycutt (email@example.com, 202-586-1420)
Transportation Demand - David Chien (firstname.lastname@example.org, 202/586-3994)
Electricity Generation, Futures - David Schoeberlein (email@example.com, 202/586-2349)
Electricity Prices, Deregulation - Art Holland (firstname.lastname@example.org, 202/586-2026)
Nuclear Energy - Laura Church (email@example.com, 202/586-1494)
Renewable Energy - Perry M. Lindstrom (firstname.lastname@example.org, 202/586-0934)
Oil and Gas Production - Ted McCallister (email@example.com, 202/586-4725)
Natural Gas Markets - Phyllis Martin (firstname.lastname@example.org, 202/586-9592)
Oil Refining and Markets - Stacy MacIntyre (email@example.com, 202/586-9795)
Coal Supply and Prices - Richard Newcombe (firstname.lastname@example.org, 202/586-2415)
Electronic Access and Related Reports
The AEO97 will be available on CD-ROM and the EIA Home Page on the Internet (http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo97/homepage.html), including text, forecast tables, and graphics. To download the tables or the entire publication, go to the EIA FTP Site (ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/forecasting/aeo97/). Assumptions underlying the projections and tables of regional and other detailed results (formerly published in the Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook) will also be available on the EIA Home Page in December 1996. AEO97,the assumptions, and supplementary tables will be available on CD-ROM by February 1997. Forecast tables are available on diskette by contacting the Office of Scientific and Technical Information by telephone at 423/576-8401 or by mail at P.O. Box 62, Oak Ridge, TN 37831; they are also available through EIA's Fax-on-Demand (202/586-3550).
Model documentation reports for the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) are also available on CD-ROM. For ordering information and questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIA's National Energy
Information Center. Addresses, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows:
National Energy Information Center, EI-231 Telephone: 202/586-8800
Energy Information Administration TTY: For people who are deaf
Forrestal Building, Room 1F-048 or hard of hearing: 202/586-1181
Washington, DC 20585 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.,EST, M-F
World Wide Web Site: http://www.eia.gov
Gopher Site: gopher://gopher.eia.doe.gov
FTP Site: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov
Annual Energy Outlook 1997 Data Diskette Instruction Sheet
Data for each Annual Energy Outlook 1997 (AEO) case:
High Economic Growth
Low Economic Growth
High World Oil Price
Low World Oil Price