‹ Analysis & Projections

Annual Energy Outlook 2011

Release Date: April 26, 2011   |  Next Early Release Date: January 23, 2012  |   Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383(2011)

NEMS overview and brief description of cases

Table E1. Summary of the AEO2011 cases
Reference Baseline economic growth (2.7 percent per year from 2009 through 2035), world oil price, and technology assumptions. Complete projection tables in Appendix A. World light, sweet crude oil prices rise to about $125 per barrel by 2035 in year 2009 dollars. Assumes RFS target to be met as soon as possible. Fully integrated
Low Economic Growth Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent from 2009 to 2035. Other energy market assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix B. Fully integrated
High Economic Growth Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent from 2009 to 2035. Other energy market assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix B. Fully integrated
Low Oil Price (Primary low price case) Low prices result from low demand for liquid fuels in the non-OECD nations. Lower demand is measured by lower economic growth relative to the Reference case.  In this case, GDP growth in the non-OECD is reduced by 1.5 percentage points in each projection year relative to Reference case assumptions from 2015 TO 2035. World light, sweet crude oil prices fall to about $50 per barrel in 2035, compared with $125 per barrel in the Reference case (2009 dollars). Other assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix C. Fully integrated
Traditional Low Oil Price More optimistic assumptions for economic access to non-OPEC resources and OPEC behavior than in the Reference case. Prices are the same as those used in the Low Oil Price case.  Partial projection tables in Appendix C. Fully integrated
High Oil Price (Primary high price case) High prices result from high demand for liquid fuels in the non-OECD nations. Higher demand is measured by higher economic growth relative to the Reference case.  In this case, GDP growth in the non-OECD is raised by 1.0 percentage points in each projection year relative to Reference case assumptions from 2015 to 2035.  World light, sweet crude oil prices rise to about $200 per barrel (2009 dollars) in 2035. Other assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix C. Fully integrated
Traditional High Oil Price More pessimistic assumptions for economic access to non-OPEC resources and OPEC behavior than in the Reference case. Prices are the same as those used in the High Oil Price case.  Partial projection tables in Appendix C. Fully integrated
No sunset Begins with the Reference case and assumes extension of all existing energy policies and legislation that contain sunset provisions, except those requiring additional funding (e.g., loan guarantee programs) and those that involve extensive regulatory analysis, such as CAFE improvements and periodic efficiency standard updates.   Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Extended Policies Begins with the No Sunset case, but excludes extension of blender and other biofuel tax credits that were included in No Sunset case.  Assumes expansion of the maximum industrial ITC and CHP credits and extension of program.  The case includes the assumptions of the “Expanded Standards and Codes case” described below. Assumes new LDV CAFE standards (to 46 miles per gallon by 2025) and tailpipe emissions proposal consistent with the CAFÉ 3% Growth case described below.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Expanded Standards Begins with Reference case assumptions for standards.  Adds additional rounds of efficiency standards for currently covered products as well as new standards for products not yet covered.  Efficiency levels assume improvement similar to those in Energy Star or Federal Energy Management Plan (FEMP) guidelines.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Residential and commercial only
Expanded Standards and Codes Begins with Expanded Standards case and adds multiple rounds of national building codes by 2026.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Residential and commercial only
Residential: 2010 Technology Future equipment purchases based on equipment available in 2010. New and existing building shell efficiencies fixed at 2010 levels. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. With commercial
Residential: High Technology Earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficiencies assumed for more advanced equipment. Building shell efficiencies for new construction meet ENERGY STAR requirements after 2015. Consumers evaluate efficiency investments at a 7 percent real discount rate. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. With commercial
Residential: Best Available Technology Future equipment purchases and new building shells based on most efficient technologies available by fuel. Building shell efficiencies for new construction meet the criteria for most efficient components after 2010. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. With commercial
Commercial: 2010 Technology Future equipment purchases based on equipment available in 2010. Building shell efficiencies fixed at 2010 levels. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. With residential
Commercial: High Technology Earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficiencies for more advanced equipment. Energy efficiency investments evaluated at a 7 percent real discount rate. Building shell efficiencies for new and existing buildings increase by 17.4 and 7.5 percent, respectively, from 2003 values by 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix D With residential
Commercial: Best Available Technology Future equipment purchases based on most efficient technologies available by fuel. Building shell efficiencies for new and existing buildings increase by 20.8 and 9.0 percent, respectively, from 2003 values by 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. With residential
Industrial; 2010 Technology Efficiency of plant and equipment fixed at 2010 levels. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Standalone
Industrial: High Technology Earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficiencies for more advanced equipment. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Standalone
Transportation: Low Technology Advanced technologies are more costly and less efficient than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Standalone
Transportation: High Technology Advanced technologies are less costly and more efficient than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Standalone
Transportation: CAFE 3% Growth Implements 3% per year increase in fuel economy standards for LDV's from 2017 to 2025, with CAFE standard reaching 46 miles per gallon in 2025.  Standards are held constant after 2025.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Transportation: CAFE 6% Growth Implements 6% per year increase in fuel economy standards for LDV's from 2017 to 2025, with CAFE standard reaching 59 miles per gallon in 2025.  Standards are held constant after 2025.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Transportation: Heavy Duty Vehicle  Fuel Economy Standards Implements increased fuel economy standards for heavy duty vehicles for model years 2014 through 2018.  Standards are held constant after 2018.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: Low Fossil Technology Cost Capital and operating costs for all new fossil-fired generating technologies start 20 percent below the Reference case and decline to 40 percent below the Reference case in 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: High Fossil Technology Cost Costs for all new fossil-fired generating technologies do not improve due to learning from 2011 levels in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: Low Nuclear Cost Capital and operating costs for new nuclear capacity start 20 percent lower than in the Reference case and fall to 40 percent lower in 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: High Nuclear Cost Costs for new nuclear technology do not improve due to learning from 2011 levels in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: Frozen Plant Capital Costs Base overnight costs for all new electric generating technologies are assumed to be frozen at 2015 levels. Cost decline due to learning, but costs do not decrease due to commodity price changes.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: Decreasing Plant Capital Costs Base overnight costs for all new electric generating technologies are assumed to fall more rapidly than in the Reference case, starting 20 percent below the reference case costs in 2011 and falling to 40 percent below in 2035.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: Transport Rule  Mercury MACT 5 Assumes that the Transport Rule limits on SO2 and NOx and 90 percent mercury MACT are enacted.   A 5 year capital recovery period is assumed for the retrofits.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: Transport Rule Mercury MACT 20 Same environmental rules as above, but assuming a 20 year capital recovery period for retrofits.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: Retrofit Required 5 Assumes all coal plants are required to install flue gas desulfurization (FGD) scrubbers by 2020 to comply with acid gas reduction requirements and that all plants install selective catalytic reduction (SCR) in order to meet future NOx and ozone requirements.  Assumes a 5 year capital recovery period for retrofits.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integratedFully integrated
Electricity: Retrofit Required 20 Same requirements on environmental controls as above, but assuming a 20 year capital recovery for retrofits. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: Low Gas Price Retrofit Required 5 Same assumptions as the FGD Scrubber Retrofit Required (5 year life) case, plus assumption of increased domestic shale gas availability and utilization rate as in the High Shale EUR case described below.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Electricity: Low Gas Price Retrofit Required 20 Same assumptions as the FGD Scrubber Retrofit Required (20 year life) case, plus assumption of increased domestic shale gas availability and utilization rate as in the High Shale Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) case described below.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Renewable Fuelsl: Low Renewable Technolgy Cost Cost of non-hydropower renewable generating technologies start 20 percent lower in 2011 and decline to 40 percent less than Reference case levels in 2035.  Capital costs of renewable liquid fuel technologies start 20 percent lower in 2011 and decline to approximately 40 percent less than Reference case levels in 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Renewable Fuels: High Renewable Technology Cost Cost of non-hydropower renewable generating technologies start 20 percent lower in 2011 and decline to 40 percent less than Reference case levels in 2035.  Capital costs of renewable liquid fuel technologies start 20 percent lower in 2011 and decline to approximately 40 percent less than Reference case levels in 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Oil and Gas: Slow Technology Improvements in exploration and development costs, production rates, and success rates due to technological advancement are 50 percent lower than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D.. Fully integrated
Oil and Gas: Rapid Technology Improvements in exploration and development costs, production rates, and success rates due to technological advancement are 50 percent lower than in Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Oil and Gas: Reduced OCS Access No lease sales occur in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, Pacific,  Atlantic, and Alaska Outer Continential Shelf (OCS) through 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Oil and Gas: High OCS Resource Oil and natural gas resources in the Pacific, Eastern Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic and Alaska outer continental shelf (OCS) are assumed to be three times higher than in the Reference case.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D Fully integratedFully integrated
Oil and Gas: High OCS Costs The costs of exploration and development of oil and natural gas resources in the OCS are assumed to be 30 percent higher than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Oil and Gas: Low Shale EUR The estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) per shale gas well is assumed to be 50 percent lower than in the Reference case.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Oil and Gas: High Shale EUR The EUR per shale gas well is assumed to be 50 percent higher than in the Reference case.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Oil and Gas: Low Shale Recovery The estimated undeveloped technically recoverable shale gas resource base is 50 percent lower than in the Reference case with the per well recovery rate unchanged from the Reference case, resulting in fewer wells needed to fully recover the resource. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Oil and Gas: High Shale Recovery The estimated undeveloped technically recoverable shale gas resource base is 50 percent higher than in the Reference case with the per well recovery rate unchanged from the Reference case, resulting in more wells needed to fully recover the resource. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Oil and Gas: Low E15 Penetration Consumers and retailers adopt E15 at a minimal rate in States that do not prohibit E15 blends.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Oil and Gas; High E15 Penetration All States that currently limit or prohibit E15 remove these restrictions by 2015. Consumers and retailers adopt widespread E15 blending.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Coal: Low Coal Cost Regional productivity growth rates for coal mining are approximately 2.7 percent per year higher than in the Reference case, and coal mining wages, mine equipment, and coal transportation rates are between 22 and 25 percent lower by 2035 than in the Reference case.   Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Coal: High Coal Cost Regional productivity growth rates for coal mining are approximately 2.7 percent per year lower than in the Reference case, and coal mining wages, mine equipment, and coal transportation rates are between 25 and 28 percent by higher by 2035 than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Integrated 2010 Technology Combination of the Residential, Commercial, and Industrial 2010 Technology cases and the Electricity High Fossil Technology Cost, High Renewable Technology Cost, and High Nuclear Cost cases. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Integrated High Technology Combination of the Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Transportation High Technology cases and the Electricity Low Fossil Technology Cost, Low Renewable Technology Cost, and Low Nuclear Cost cases. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
No GHG Concern No GHG emissions reduction policy is enacted, and market investment decisions are not altered in anticipation of such a policy. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
GHG Price Economywide Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy. The CO2 price assumed starts at $25 per ton CO2 beginning in 2013 and increases to $75 per ton in 2035.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Low EOR The quantity of CO2 available for CO2-EOR from industrial sources with high purity CO2 emissions is reduced from the Reference case. All other assumptions are the same as the Reference case.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated
Low EOR--GHG Price Economywide The Low EOR case is run with the same carbon price as in the GHG Price Economywide case.  Partial projection tables in Appendix D. Fully integrated