‹ Analysis & Projections

Annual Energy Outlook 2011

Release Date: April 26, 2011   |  Next Early Release Date: January 23, 2012  |   Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383(2011)

market trends icon Electric Power

exec summary Executive Summary

The EPA is expected to enact several key regulations in the coming decade that will have an impact on the U.S. power sector, particularly the fleet of coal-fired power plants. Because the rules have not yet been finalized, their impacts cannot be fully analyzed, and they are not included in the Reference case. However, AEO2011 does include several alternative cases that examine the sensitivity of power generation markets to various assumed requirements for environmental retrofits. In addition, a case with an explicit price on CO2 emissions is also examined.

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Mkt trends Market Trends

Electricity demand growth has slowed in each decade since the 1950s. After 9.8-percent annual growth in the 1950s, demand (including retail sales and direct use) increased 2.4 percent per year in the 1990s. From 2000 to 2009 (including the 2008-2009 economic downturn) demand grew by 0.5 percent per year. In the Reference case, electricity demand growth rebounds but remains relatively slow, as growing demand for electricity services is offset by efficiency gains from new appliance standards and investments in energy-efficient equipment.

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issues Issues in Focus

Capital costs are a key consideration in decisions about the type of new generating plant or capacity addition that will be built to meet future demand for electricity. Capital costs for new power plants include materials, skilled labor, and generating equipment. For AEO2011, EIA commissioned a study of the cost components for different utility-scale electric power technologies, with the goal of presenting costs for different plant types in a common set of cost categories to facilitate comparison of capital costs. A major change from previous years in assumptions for the cost study included a significant increase in the assumed costs for coal and nuclear power projects [58].

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legs Legislation and Regulations

State renewable energy requirements and goals: Update through 2010

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figure data

Reference Case Tables
Table 2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - United States XLS
Table 2.1. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - New England XLS
Table 2.2. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - Middle Atlantic XLS
Table 2.3. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - East North Central XLS
Table 2.4. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - West North Central XLS
Table 2.5. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - South Atlantic XLS
Table 2.6. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - East South Central XLS
Table 2.7. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - West South Central XLS
Table 2.8. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - Mountain XLS
Table 2.9. Energy Consumption by Sector and Source - Pacific XLS
Table 9. Electricity Generating Capacity XLS
Table 10. Electricity Trade XLS
Table 16. Renewable Energy Generating Capacity and Generation XLS
Table 17. Renewable Energy Consumption by Sector and Source XLS
Table 18. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - United States XLS
Table 18.1. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - New England XLS
Table 18.2. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - Middle Atlantic XLS
Table 18.3. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - East North Central XLS
Table 18.4. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - West North Central XLS
Table 18.5. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - South Atlantic XLS
Table 18.6. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - East South Central XLS
Table 18.7. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - West South Central XLS
Table 18.8. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - Mountain XLS
Table 18.9. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Source - Pacific XLS
Table 55. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - United States XLS
Table 55.1. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Texas Regional Entity XLS
Table 55.1. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Reliability First Corporation / Michigan XLS
Table 55.11. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Reliability First Corporation / West XLS
Table 55.12. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability Corporation / Delta XLS
Table 55.13. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability Corporation / Gateway XLS
Table 55.14. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability Corporation / Southeastern XLS
Table 55.15. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability Corporation / Central XLS
Table 55.16. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - SERC Reliability Corporation / Virginia-Carolina XLS
Table 55.17. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Southwest Power Pool / North XLS
Table 55.18. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Southwest Power Pool / South XLS
Table 55.19. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Southwest XLS
Table 55.2. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / California XLS
Table 55.2. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Florida Reliability Coordinating Council XLS
Table 55.21. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Northwest Power Pool Area XLS
Table 55.22. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Rockies XLS
Table 55.3. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Midwest Reliability Council / East XLS
Table 55.4. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Midwest Reliability Council / West XLS
Table 55.5. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Northeast XLS
Table 55.6. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / NYC-Westchester XLS
Table 55.7. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Long Island XLS
Table 55.8. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Upstate New York XLS
Table 55.9. Electric Power Projections for EMM Region - Reliability First Corporation / East XLS
Table 56. Electricity Generation by Electricity Market Module Region and Source XLS
Table 57. Electricity Generation Capacity by Electricity Market Module Region and Source XLS
Table 58. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - United States XLS
Table 58.1. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Texas Regional Entity XLS
Table 58.1. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Reliability First Corporation / Michigan XLS
Table 58.11. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Reliability First Corporation / West XLS
Table 58.12. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation / Delta XLS
Table 58.13. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation / Gateway XLS
Table 58.14. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation / Southeastern XLS
Table 58.15. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation / Central XLS
Table 58.16. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - SERC Reliability Corporation / Virginia-Carolina XLS
Table 58.17. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Southwest Power Pool / North XLS
Table 58.18. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Southwest Power Pool / South XLS
Table 58.19. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Southwest XLS
Table 58.2. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / California XLS
Table 58.2. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Florida Reliability Coordinating Council XLS
Table 58.21. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Northwest Power Pool Area XLS
Table 58.22. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Western Electricity Coordinating Council / Rockies XLS
Table 58.3. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Midwest Reliability Council / East XLS
Table 58.4. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Midwest Reliability Council / West XLS
Table 58.5. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Northeast XLS
Table 58.6. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / NYC-Westchester XLS
Table 58.7. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Long Island XLS
Table 58.8. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Northeast Power Coordinating Council / Upstate New York XLS
Table 58.9. Renewable Energy Generation by Fuel - Reliability First Corporation / East XLS