‹ Analysis & Projections

AEO2011 Early Release Overview

Release Date: December 16, 2011   |  Next Release Date: January 2012  |   Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2011)

Economic growth

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grows by an average of 2.7 percent per year from 2009 to 2035 in the AEO2011 Reference case, the same as in the AEO2010 Reference case. The Nation's population, labor force, and productivity grow at annual rates of 0.9 percent, 0.7 percent, and 2.0 percent, respectively, from 2009 to 2035.

Beyond 2011, the economic assumptions underlying the AEO2011 Reference case refl ect trend projections that do not include shortterm fluctuations. The near-term scenario for economic growth is consistent with that in EIA's October 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook. It is important to note that one must exercise care in evaluating percent growth relative to 2009 levels throughout the projection results since 2009 was the low point of the economic downturn and associated energy consumption.