of the AEO2001
Energy Outlook 2001
The Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIAs National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).
The report begins with an Overview summarizing the AEO2001 reference case. The next section, Legislation and Regulations, discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. Issues in Focus discusses the macroeconomic projections, world oil and natural gas markets, oxygenates in gasoline, distributed electricity generation, electricity industry restructuring, and carbon dioxide emissions. It is followed by the analysis of energy market trends.
The analysis in AEO2001 focuses primarily on a reference case and four other cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. Forecast tables for those cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Alternative cases explore the impacts of varying key assumptions in NEMS e.g., technology penetration. The major results for the alternative cases are shown in Appendix F. Appendix G briefly describes NEMS, the AEO2001 assumptions, and the alternative cases.
The AEO2001 projections are based on Federal, State, and local laws and regulations in effect on July 1, 2000. Pending legislation and sections of existing legislation for which funds have not been appropriated are not reflected in the forecasts. Historical data used for the AEO2001 projections were the most current available as of July 31, 2000, when most 1999 data but only partial 2000 data were available. Historical data are presented in this report for comparative purposes; documents referenced in the source notes should be consulted for official data values. The projections for 2000 and 2001 incorporate the short-term projections from EIAs September 2000 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The AEO2001 projections are used by Federal, State, and local governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. They are published in accordance with Section 205c of the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 9591), which requires the EIA Administrator to prepare annual reports on trends and projections for energy use and supply.
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