‹ Analysis & Projections

Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Release Date: May 7, 2014   |  Next Early Release Date: February 2015   |  See schedule  |  full report

Issues in focus

Table 6. Differences in transportation demand assumptions across three cases
Transportation mode Reference Low/No Net Imports High Net Imports
Light-duty vehicles
Vehicle miles traveled (compound annual growth rate, 2011-2040) 1.2% 0.2% 11%
Vehicle technology efficiency in 2040 Baseline Baseline + 10% Baseline - 10%
Vehicle technology cost in 2040 Baseline Baseline - 10% Baseline + 10%
CAFE standard compliance value in 2040 (miles per gallon) 49.0 57.7 39.9
Flex-fuel vehicle stock in 2040 (millions) 20.9 44.3 20.0
Batter-electric vehicle costs Baseline Baseline - 14% Baseline
Heavy-duty vehicles
Vehicle technology efficiency in 2040 Baseline Baseline + 10% Baseline - 10%
vehicle technology cost in 2040 Baseline Baseline - 10% Baseline + 10%
Potential market share for natural gas fuel 27% 41% 27%
Marine
Efficiency (ton-miles per thousand Btu) 2.55 2.66 2.41
Potential market share for natural gas fuel 0% 8% 0%
Rail
Efficiency (ton-miles per thousand Btu) 3.54 3.70 3.44
Potential market share for natural gas fuel 0% 100% 0%