‹ Analysis & Projections

Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Release Dates: April 7 - 30, 2014   |  Next Early Release Date: December 2014   |  See schedule

Comparison with other projections

Table 12. Comparisons of natural gas projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040
(trillion cubic feet, except where noted)
      Other projections
Projection 2011 AEO2013
Reference case
IHSGI EVA ICF ExxonMobil INFORUM
        2025      
Dry gas productiona 23.00 28.59 32.29 29.86b 32.39 -- 26.26
Net imports 1.95 -1.58 -1.45 1.05 -0.63 -- --
Pipeline 1.67 -0.52 -- 2.21 0.60 -- --
LNG 0.28 -1.06 -- -1.16 -1.23 -- --
Consumption 24.37 26.87 30.87 31.49 30.34c 29.00c 23.61d
Residential 4.72 4.44 4.58 4.98 5.05 7.00f 4.84
Commercial 3.16 3.35 3.23 3.33 3.01 -- 3.42
Industrialf 6.77 7.82 7.31 8.23 8.79 9.00 7.07
Electricity generatorsg 7.60 8.45 12.57 11.75 10.83 13.00 8.28
Othersh 2.11 2.81 3.19 3.20 2.66 0.00i --
Henry Hub spot market price (2011 dollars per million Btu) 3.98 4.87 4.39 6.34 5.02 -- --
End-use prices (2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Residential 11.05 12.97 11.16 -- 11.51 -- --
Commercial 9.04 10.43 9.27 -- 9.50 -- --
Industrialj 5.00 6.29 6.42 -- 5.88 -- --
Electricity generators 4.87 5.70 4.89 -- 5.85 -- --
        2035      
Dry gas productiona 23.00 31.35 36.07 31.44b 35.46 -- 27.91
Net imports 1.95 -2.55 -1.18 2.62 -0.72 -- --
Pipeline 1.67 -1.09 -- 3.78 0.50 -- --
LNG 0.28 -1.46 -- -1.16 -1.22 -- --
Consumption 24.37 28.71 34.90 34.67 33.14c 30.00c 24.45d
Residential 4.72 4.24 4.54 4.96 5.02 7.00f 4.72
Commercial 3.16 3.51 3.30 3.47 2.84 -- 3.57
Industrialf 6.77 8.38 6.85 8.61 9.01 8.00 6.94
Electricity generatorsg 7.60 9.44 16.15 13.98 13.36 15.00 9.23
Othersh 2.11 3.68 4.06 3.65 2.91 1.00j --
Henry Hub spot market price (2011 dollars per million Btu) 3.98 6.32 4.98 8.00 6.21 -- --
End-use prices (2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Residential 11.34 15.32 11.58 -- 12.28 -- --
Commercial 9.28 12.26 9.78 -- 10.38 -- --
Industrialj 5.13 7.82 7.02 -- 6.98 -- --
Electricity generators 5.00 7.32 5.48 -- 7.03 -- --
        2040      
Dry gas productiona 23.00 33.14 37.56 -- -- -- --
Net imports 1.95 -3.55 -0.95 -- -- -- --
Pipeline 1.67 -2.09 -- -- -- -- --
LNG 0.28 -1.46 -- -- -- -- --
Consumption 24.37 29.54 36.61 -- -- 30.00c --
Residential 4.72 4.14 4.52 -- -- 7.00e --
Commercial 3.16 3.60 3.29 -- -- -- --
Industrialf 6.77 7.90 6.68 -- -- 8.00 --
Electricity generatorsg 7.60 9.50 17.72 -- -- 15.00 --
Othersh 2.11 4.40 4.40 -- -- 1.00i --
Henry Hub spot market price (2011 dollars per million Btu) 3.98 7.83 5.39 -- -- -- --
End-use prices (2011 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Residential 11.05 16.74 11.81 -- -- -- --
Commercial 9.04 13.52 10.02 -- -- -- --
Industrialk 5.00 9.09 7.32 -- -- -- --
Electricity generators 4.87 8.55 5.83 -- -- -- --

-- = not reported.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.
aDoes not include supplemental fuels.
bLower 48 only.
cDoes not include lease, plant, and pipeline fuel and fuel consumed in natural gas vehicles.
dDoes not include lease, plant, and pipeline fuel.
eNatural gas consumed in the residential and commercial sectors.
f Includes consumption for industrial combined heat and power (CHP) plants and a small number of industrial electricity-only plants, and natural gas-to-liquids heat/power and production; excludes consumption by nonutility generators.
gIncludes consumption of energy by electricity-only and combined heat and power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Includes electric utilities, small power producers, and exempt wholesale generators.
hIncludes lease, plant, and pipeline fuel and fuel consumed in natural gas vehicles.
iFuel consumed in natural gas vehicles only.
jThe 2011 industrial natural gas price for IHSGI is $6.11.