‹ Analysis & Projections

AEO2010 Retrospective Review

Release Date: August 18, 2011   |  Next Release Date: August 2012   |  Report Number: DOE/EIA-0640(2010)

Table 2. Summary of number of over-estimated results between AEO Reference cases and realized outcomes
All AEOs NEMS AEOs
Percent of Projections Over-Estimated Percent of Projections Over-Estimated
Table 3. Gross Domestic Product (Average Cumulative Growth), Actual vs. Projected 24% 37%
Table 4. World Oil Prices, Actual vs. Projected 52% 24%
Table 5. Total Petroleum Consumption, Actual vs. Projected 44% 61%
Table 6. Domestic Crude Oil Production, Actual vs. Projected 59% 65%
Table 7. Petroleum Net Imports, Actual vs. Projected 56% 61%
Table 8. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, Actual vs. Projected 54% 23%
Table 9. Total Natural Gas Consumption, Actual vs. Projected 49% 70%
Table 10. Natural Gas Production, Actual vs. Projected 56% 71%
Table 11. Natural Gas Net Imports, Actual vs. Projected 45% 64%
Table 12. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants, Actual vs. Projected 74% 52%
Table 13. Total Coal Consumption, Actual vs. Projected 48% 52%
Table 14. Coal Production, Actual vs. Projected 66% 57%
Table 15. Average Electricity Prices, Actual vs. Projected 71% 48%
Table 16. Total Electricity Sales, Actual vs. Projected 40% 40%
Table 17. Total Energy Consumption, Actual vs. Projected 57% 69%
Table 18. Residential Consumption, Actual vs. Projected 64% 66%
Table 19. Commercial Consumption, Actual vs. Projected 36% 38%
Table 20. Industrial Consumption, Actual vs. Projected 77% 88%
Table 21. Transportation Consumption, Actual vs. Projected 41% 67%
Table 22. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Actual vs. Projected 51% 56%
Table 23. Energy Intensity, Actual vs. Projected 75% 99%