‹ Analysis & Projections

AEO2010 Retrospective Review

Release Date: August 18, 2011   |  Next Release Date: August 2012   |  Report Number: DOE/EIA-0640(2010)

Table 1. Comparison of Absolute Percent Difference Between AEO Reference Case Projections and Realized Outcomes
Variable All AEOs (AEO82 to AEO2010) NEMS AEOs (AEO94 to AEO2010)
Gross Domestic Product    
Real Gross Domestic Product (Average Cumulative Growth)* 0.8 0.9
Petroleum    
World Oil Prices 49.9 31.4
Total Petroleum Consumption 4.1 4.3
Crude Oil Production 5.8 6.4
Petroleum Net Imports 8.0 7.3
Natural Gas    
Natural Gas Wellhead Prices 56.6 31.9
Total Natural Gas Consumption 7.3 7.4
Natural Gas Production 6.2 6.9
Natural Gas Net Imports 17.9 17.1
Coal    
Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants** 43.1 19.5
Total Coal Consumption 4.9 6.0
Coal Production 4.8 4.5
Electricity    
Average Electricity Prices 19.7 12.0
Total Electricity Sales 3.0 3.8
Total Energy, Carbon and Intensity    
Total Energy Consumption 3.5 4.3
Residential Energy Consumption 3.5 4.0
Commercial Energy Consumption 4.6 6.0
Industrial Energy Consumption 7.6 9.6
Transportation Energy Consumption 5.0 4.5
Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions 4.7 4.9
Energy Intensity 6.5 6.9
AEO - Annual Energy Outlook
Source: These statistics summarize the calculations in Tables 3 through 23. The data in Tables 3 through 23 are based on the 1982 through 2010 Annual Energy Outlook projections. Historical data are taken from the Annual Energy Review 2009, DOE/EIA-0384(2009) (Washington, DC, July 2010) and the Monthly Energy Review August 2010, DOE/EIA-0035(2010/08) (Washington, DC, August 21, 2010).
Note: Projections of carbon dioxide emissions began in AEO93 and were first evaluated in 2000 retrospective. Evaluation of energy intensity projections began in 2003. Revisions to historical data are reflected in this edition.
* The basis for GDP comparison is the projection differences in the cumulative average growth rate of real GDP from the first year shown for each AEO. Thus, the summary information for projection differences given in Table 3 is on a percentage point basis and is different from the other AEO concepts which are evaluated in levels.
** Coal prices to electric generating plants are from the Monthly Energy Review. Beginning in AEO2003, EIA electric generating projections incorporated combined heat and power (CHP) electricity generation in electricity generating plants. Prior to AEO2003, coal price projections reflected data collected, estimated, and reported to electric utilities and excluded CHP power generation.