U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
AEO2013 Early Release Overview
The recovery from the 2008-09 recession continues on a slow path in the AEO2013 Reference case. Consumer confidence surveys are still roughly 25 percent below prerecession levels nearly two years after the official end of the recession in 2009. The slower economic growth in the early years of the projection has implications for the long term, with a lower economic growth rate leading to a slower recovery in employment.
Table 2 compares key long-run economic growth in the AEO2013 and AEO2012 Reference cases to growth rates experienced during the past 30 years. Even though overall GDP growth is slightly lower in the AEO2013 Reference case than the historical period, import growth is slower than export growth, allowing more of the domestic production to satisfy domestic demand. As a result, industrial production growth is higher in AEO2013 than in AEO2012.
Beyond 2013, the economic assumptions underlying the AEO2013 Reference case reflect trend projections that do not include short-term fluctuations. Economic growth projections for 2013 are consistent with those published in EIA's September 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
|Real disposable income||2.3||2.5||2.9|
|Real consumer spending||2.2||2.3||3.0|
|Real private investment||4.0||4.2||2.8|
|Real government expenditures||0.6||0.5||2.2|
|Federal funds rate (average rate over period)||3.4||3.6||5.8|
|Unemployment rate (average rate over period)||5.9||6.4||6.3|
|Output per hour in nonfarm business||1.9||1.9||2.1|
|Real GDP: Major trading countries2||1.8||1.8||2.4|
|Real GDP: Other trading countries3||4.0||4.2||4.5|
|1For period from 2011 to 2035.
2Major U.S. trading partners include Australia, Canada, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Japan, Sweden, and the Eurozone.
3Other trading partners include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Mexico, Hong Kong, Indonesia, India, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Venezuela.
Source: History: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve; and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A; and AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C.
- Executive summary
- Economic growth
- Energy prices
- Energy consumption
- Energy consumption
by primary fuel
- Energy intensity
- Energy production
- Electricity generation
- Energy-related CO2 emissions
Reference Case Summary & Detailed Tables
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