U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
AEO2014 Early Release Overview
Macroeconomic projections in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) are trend projections, with no major shocks assumed and with potential growth determined by the economyâ€™s supply capability. Growth in aggregate supply depends on increases in the labor force, growth of capital stocks, and improvements in productivity. Long-term demand growth depends on labor force growth,income growth, and population growth. AEO2014 uses the U.S. Census Bureauâ€™s December 2012 middle population projection. The U.S. Census Bureau revised its population projections primarily to reflect lower assumptions regarding international net migration.
In AEO2014, U.S. population is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.7% from 2012 to 2040, or 0.2 percentage points lower than the 0.9% average annual population growth rate in AEO2013. As shown in Figure 5, most of the change from AEO2013 to AEO2014 is in the younger age cohorts. Real GDP, labor force, and productivity in AEO2014 grow by average annual rates of 2.4%, 0.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, from 2012 to 2040.
Total industrial production growth (which includes manufacturing, construction, agriculture, and mining) in AEO2014 is higher than projected in AEO2013, primarily as a result of more rapid growth in manufacturing output, with most of the difference accounted for by machinery, transportation equipment, fabricated metals, and bulk chemicals. Those industries, in addition to being trade-sensitive, supply equipment or raw materials used in oil and gas production or otherwise benefit from lower natural gas prices. In 2040, the manufacturing share of total gross output is 18% in AEO2014, compared with 16% in AEO2013.
- Executive summary
- Economic growth
- Energy prices
- Delivered energy consumption
- Energy consumption
by primary fuel
- Energy intensity
- Energy production
- Electricity generation
- Energy-related CO2 emissions
Reference Case Summary & Detailed Tables
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Provides custom data views of the AEO2014 Reference case and as compared to the AEO2013 Reference case. All available cases can be charted and the data for them downloaded.