‹ Analysis & Projections

AEO2013 Early Release Overview

Release Date: December 5, 2012   |  Report Release Schedule: April 15 - May 2, 2013   |   Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2013)

Economic growth

The recovery from the 2008-09 recession continues on a slow path in the AEO2013 Reference case. Consumer confidence surveys are still roughly 25 percent below prerecession levels nearly two years after the official end of the recession in 2009. The slower economic growth in the early years of the projection has implications for the long term, with a lower economic growth rate leading to a slower recovery in employment.

Table 2 compares key long-run economic growth in the AEO2013 and AEO2012 Reference cases to growth rates experienced during the past 30 years. Even though overall GDP growth is slightly lower in the AEO2013 Reference case than the historical period, import growth is slower than export growth, allowing more of the domestic production to satisfy domestic demand. As a result, industrial production growth is higher in AEO2013 than in AEO2012.

Beyond 2013, the economic assumptions underlying the AEO2013 Reference case reflect trend projections that do not include short-term fluctuations. Economic growth projections for 2013 are consistent with those published in EIA's September 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Table 2. Comparison of key economic growth rates from 2011-2040 to growth from 1980-2010
(percent per year, unless otherwise noted)
  AEO2013 AEO20121 1980-2010
U.S. Indicators
Real GDP 2.5 2.6 2.7
Real disposable income 2.3 2.5 2.9
Real consumer spending 2.2 2.3 3.0
Real private investment 4.0 4.2 2.8
Real exports 5.5 5.9 5.3
Real imports 3.8 4.1 6.2
Real government expenditures 0.6 0.5 2.2
Federal funds rate (average rate over period) 3.4 3.6 5.8
Unemployment rate (average rate over period) 5.9 6.4 6.3
Output per hour in nonfarm business 1.9 1.9 2.1
International Indicators
Real GDP: Major trading countries2 1.8 1.8 2.4
Real GDP: Other trading countries3 4.0 4.2 4.5
1For period from 2011 to 2035.
2Major U.S. trading partners include Australia, Canada, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Japan, Sweden, and the Eurozone.
3Other trading partners include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Mexico, Hong Kong, Indonesia, India, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Venezuela.
Source: History: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve; and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Projections: AEO2013 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2013.D102312A; and AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D020112C.

Sections

Data Tables

Reference Case Summary & Detailed Tables

A1 Total Energy Supply and Disposition Demand    
A2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source    
A3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source    
A4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption    
A5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption    
A6 Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption    
A7 Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption    
A8 Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions    
A9 Electricity Generating Capacity    
A10 Electricity Trade    

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