Energy & Financial Markets

WHAT DRIVES CRUDE OIL PRICES?

An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly

What drives crude oil prices: Overview

EIA assesses the various factors that may influence crude oil prices — physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. We describe the seven key factors that could influence oil markets and explore possible linkages between each factor and crude oil prices. We include regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.

Several graphs include projections from EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook. Graphs are updated with new data on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis according to the schedule below. Analytical text will be updated as needed.

All graphs
Graph update schedule by section     Update frequency Last update
Supply: Non-OPEC    
Production & WTI crude prices Monthly 11/08/2016
Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude Monthly 11/08/2016
Projected supply, annual average Monthly 11/08/2016
OPEC and Non-opec Supply disruption Monthly 11/08/2016
 
Supply: OPEC    
Changes in Saudi Production & WTI crude prices Monthly 11/08/2016
Spare production capacity & WTI crude prices Monthly 11/08/2016
Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude Monthly 11/08/2016
OPEC and Non-opec Supply disruption Monthly 11/08/2016
 
Balance    
OECD inventories & WTI futures spread Quarterly 09/30/2016
 
Spot Prices    
World crude oil prices Monthly 10/31/2016
U.S. retail gasoline price, refiner acquisition cost of crude oil Monthly 11/08/2016
Crude price reaction to events Quarterly 09/30/2016
 
Financial Markets    
Average daily open interest in crude oil futures Quarterly 09/30/2016
Futures positions by producers, merchants, processors, & end users Monthly 10/31/2016
Futures positions by money managers Monthly 10/31/2016
Correlations between daily prices changes of crude & other commodities Quarterly 09/30/2016

Commodity index assets under management & Dow Jones UBS price index

Quarterly 09/30/2016
Composition of the Dow Jones UBS commodity index Annual 2015
Correlations between daily returns on crude oil & financial investments Quarterly 09/30/2016
 
Demand: Non-OECD    
Consumption & GDP Monthly 11/08/2016
World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices Monthly 11/08/2016
Projected non-OECD production, annual average Monthly 11/08/2016
 
Demand: OECD    
Crude oil consumption & WTI crude oil price Monthly 11/08/2016
World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices Monthly 11/08/2016