United States
Energy Information Administration
December 7, 1999
Y2K Crude Oil Vulnerability Assessment
This assessment of the oil industry's Y2K vulnerability for countries with 0.5 million barrels per day or more of crude oil production in the first 9 months of 1999 is generally based on four factors: 1) how technically advanced a country is; 2) an assessment of preparedness in the country's oil industry; 3) risk related to the capability of oil companies involved in coping with Y2K problems; and 4) dependency of the oil industry on each country's electrical grid and other infrastructure. Generally, as long as a country has sufficient funds to address the problem or has high oil company capability (leading to a low risk assessment in either category), overall vulnerability is rated "Low". In Iraq's case, overall assessment is rated "Low" due to Iraq's low level of technical advancement and its perceived ability to work around problems (as evidenced by their ability to increase oil production while remaining on U.N. sanctions).
|
Country |
Y2K Vulnerability |
Level of Technical Advancement. |
Risk due to Level of Preparation |
Risk due to Oil Company Capability |
Infrastructure Dependence |
Crude Oil Production* |
|
|
Saudi Arabia |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
Moderate |
7.5 |
|
|
Russia |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
6.1 |
|
|
US |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
Moderate |
5.8 |
|
|
Iran |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
3.4 |
|
|
China |
Unknown |
Moderate |
Unknown |
Moderate |
Moderate |
3.2 |
|
|
Iraq |
Low |
Low |
High |
High |
High |
3.0 |
|
|
Mexico |
Low |
High |
Low |
Moderate |
Moderate |
2.9 |
|
|
Norway |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
Low |
2.9 |
|
|
UK |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
Low |
2.6 |
|
|
Venezuela |
Low |
High |
Moderate |
Low |
Moderate |
2.6 |
|
|
UAE |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
Moderate |
2.0 |
|
|
Nigeria |
Low |
High |
Moderate |
Low |
Low |
2.0 |
|
|
Canada |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
Moderate |
1.9 |
|
|
Kuwait |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
Moderate |
1.8 |
|
|
Indonesia |
Low |
High |
Moderate |
Low |
Low |
1.3 |
|
|
Libya |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
1.3 |
|
|
Brazil |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
Low |
1.1 |
|
|
Oman |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
Moderate |
0.9 |
|
|
Colombia |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
0.9 |
|
|
Egypt |
Low |
High |
Moderate |
Low |
Moderate |
0.9 |
|
|
Argentina |
Low |
High |
Moderate |
Low |
Moderate |
0.8 |
|
|
Angola |
Low |
Moderate |
Low |
Low |
Low |
0.8 |
|
|
Algeria |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
0.7 |
|
|
Malaysia |
Low |
Moderate |
Low |
Low |
Moderate |
0.7 |
|
|
India |
Unknown |
Moderate |
Unknown |
Moderate |
Moderate |
0.7 |
|
|
Qatar |
Moderate |
High |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
0.6 |
|
|
Australia |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
Moderate |
0.5 |
|
|
Others |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
4.9 |
|
|
Total World |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
----- |
64.7 |
|
* January-September 1999 average crude oil production in million barrels per day
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