Energy Information Administration

United States
Energy Information Administration

December 7, 1999

Y2K Crude Oil Vulnerability Assessment

This assessment of the oil industry's Y2K vulnerability for countries with 0.5 million barrels per day or more of crude oil production in the first 9 months of 1999 is generally based on four factors: 1) how technically advanced a country is; 2) an assessment of preparedness in the country's oil industry; 3) risk related to the capability of oil companies involved in coping with Y2K problems; and 4) dependency of the oil industry on each country's electrical grid and other infrastructure. Generally, as long as a country has sufficient funds to address the problem or has high oil company capability (leading to a low risk assessment in either category), overall vulnerability is rated "Low". In Iraq's case, overall assessment is rated "Low" due to Iraq's low level of technical advancement and its perceived ability to work around problems (as evidenced by their ability to increase oil production while remaining on U.N. sanctions).

 

Country

Y2K Vulnerability

Level of Technical Advancement.

Risk due to Level of Preparation

Risk due to Oil Company Capability

Infrastructure Dependence

Crude Oil Production*

Saudi Arabia

Low

High

Low

Low

Moderate

7.5

Russia

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

6.1

US

Low

High

Low

Low

Moderate

5.8

Iran

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

3.4

China

Unknown

Moderate

Unknown

Moderate

Moderate

3.2

Iraq

Low

Low

High

High

High

3.0

Mexico

Low

High

Low

Moderate

Moderate

2.9

Norway

Low

High

Low

Low

Low

2.9

UK

Low

High

Low

Low

Low

2.6

Venezuela

Low

High

Moderate

Low

Moderate

2.6

UAE

Low

High

Low

Low

Moderate

2.0

Nigeria

Low

High

Moderate

Low

Low

2.0

Canada

Low

High

Low

Low

Moderate

1.9

Kuwait

Low

High

Low

Low

Moderate

1.8

Indonesia

Low

High

Moderate

Low

Low

1.3

Libya

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

1.3

Brazil

Low

High

Low

Low

Low

1.1

Oman

Low

High

Low

Low

Moderate

0.9

Colombia

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

0.9

Egypt

Low

High

Moderate

Low

Moderate

0.9

Argentina

Low

High

Moderate

Low

Moderate

0.8

Angola

Low

Moderate

Low

Low

Low

0.8

Algeria

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

0.7

Malaysia

Low

Moderate

Low

Low

Moderate

0.7

India

Unknown

Moderate

Unknown

Moderate

Moderate

0.7

Qatar

Moderate

High

Moderate

Moderate

Moderate

0.6

Australia

Low

High

Low

Low

Moderate

0.5

Others

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4.9

Total World

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64.7

* January-September 1999 average crude oil production in million barrels per day


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