Consumption & Efficiency

Projections

Annual Energy Outlook

Released: December 16, 2013

The Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014) Reference case presents updated projections for U.S. energy markets through 2040. The Reference case projetions include only the effects of policies that have been implemented in law or final regulations.

Modeling Distributed Generation in the Buildings Sectors

Released: August 29, 2013

This report focuses on how the Energy Information Administrationmodels residential and commercial sector distributed generation, including combined heat and power, for the Annual Energy Outlook.

 
Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook

Released: May 14, 2013

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

 
Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook

Released: May 1, 2013

The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the AEO using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

Energy Demand (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Growth in U.S. energy use is linked to population growth through increases in demand for housing, commercial floorspace, transportation, manufacturing, and services. This affects not only the level of energy use, but also the mix of fuels and consumption by sector.

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009: Summary of Provisions (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), signed into law in mid-February 2009, provides significant new federal funding, loan guarantees, and tax credits to stimulate investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy. The provisions of ARRA were incorporated initially as part of a revision to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference case that was released in April 2009, and they also are included in Annual Energy Outlook 2010.

Comparing Efficiency Projections (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Realized improvements in energy efficiency generally rely on a combination of technology and economics. The figure below illustrates the role of technology assumptions in the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 projections for energy efficiency in the residential and commercial buildings sector. Projected energy consumption in the Reference case is compared with projections in the Best Available Technology, High Technology, and 2009 Technology cases and an estimate based on an assumption of no change in efficiency for building shells and equipment.

Energy Intensity Trends in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

Released: May 11, 2010

Energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of real GDP) indicates how much energy a country uses to produce its goods and services. From the early 1950s to the early 1970s, U.S. total primary energy consumption and real GDP increased at nearly the same annual rate. During that period, real oil prices remained virtually flat. In contrast, from the mid-1970s to 2008, the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP growth changed, with primary energy consumption growing at less than one-third the previous average rate and real GDP growth continuing to grow at its historical rate. The decoupling of real GDP growth from energy consumption growth led to a decline in energy intensity that averaged 2.8% per year from 1973 to 2008. In the Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference case, energy intensity continues to decline, at an average annual rate of 1.9% from 2008 to 2035.

Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008: Summary of Provisions (released in AEO2009)

Released: March 31, 2009

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-343), which was signed into law on October 3, 2008, incorporates EIEA2008 in Division B. Provisions in EIEA2008 that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain or that require further specification by federal agencies or Congress, are not included in Annual Energy Outlook 2009.

Industrial Sector Energy Demand: Revisions for Non-Energy-Intensive Manufacturing (released in AEO2007)

Released: March 11, 2007

For the industrial sector, the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) analysis and projection efforts generally have focused on the energy-intensive industriesfood, bulk chemicals, refining, glass, cement, steel, and aluminumwhere energy cost averages 4.8% of annual operating cost. Detailed process flows and energy intensity indicators have been developed for narrowly defined industry groups in the energy-intensive manufacturing sector. The non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries, where energy cost averages 1.9% of annual operating cost, previously have received somewhat less attention, however. In Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO), energy demand projections were provided for two broadly aggregated industry groups in the non-energy-intensive manufacturing sector: metal-based durables and other non-energy-intensive. In the AEO2006 projections, the two groups accounted for more than 50% of the projected increase in industrial natural gas consumption from 2004 to 2030.

Biofuels in the U.S. Transportation Sector (released in AEO2007)

Released: February 22, 2007

Sustained high world oil prices and the passage of the Energy Policy Act 2005 (EPACT) have encouraged the use of agriculture-based ethanol and biodiesel in the transportation sector; however, both the continued growth of the biofuels industry and the long-term market potential for biofuels depend on the resolution of critical issues that influence the supply of and demand for biofuels. For each of the major biofuelscorn-based ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, and biodieselresolution of technical, economic, and regulatory issues remains critical to further development of biofuels in the United States.

Energy Technologies on the Horizon (released in AEO2006)

Released: February 1, 2006

A key issue in mid-term forecasting is the representation of changing and developing technologies. How existing technologies will evolve, and what new technologies might emerge, cannot be known with certainty. The issue is of particular importance in Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO), the first AEO with projections out to 2030.

Changing Trends in the Bulk Chemicals and Pulp and Paper Industries (released in AEO2005)

Released: February 1, 2005

Compared with the experience of the 1990s, rising energy prices in recent years have led to questions about expectations of growth in industrial output, particularly in energy-intensive industries. Given the higher price trends, a review of expected growth trends in selected industries was undertaken as part of the production of Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO). In addition, projections for the industrial value of shipments, which were based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system in AEO2004, are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) in AEO2005. The change in industrial classification leads to lower historical growth rates for many industrial sectors. The impacts of these two changes are highlighted in this section for two of the largest energy-consuming industries in the U.S. industrial sector-bulk chemicals and pulp and paper.

Measuring Changes in Energy Efficiency for the Annual Energy Outlook 2002

Released: July 1, 2002

This paper describes the methodology used to develop the National Energy Modeling System estimate of projected aggregate energy efficiency and to describe the results of applying it to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) reference case.

 
Delivered Energy Consumption Projections by Industry in the Annual Energy Outlook 2002

Released: June 1, 2002

This paper presents delivered energy consumption and intensity projections for the industries included in the industrial sector of the National Energy Modeling System.

 

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