Western Systems Coordinating Council (WSCC)
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Projected Change in Electricity Generation from 1996 for Full Competition Cases |
| 1996-2005 | 1996-2015 |
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- Electricity sales are projected to grow between 1.6 and 2.0 percent per year from 1996 through 2015.
- Coal-fired generation is projected to be higher in 2005, with greater utilization of existing power plants (82 percent capacity factor in 2005, compared with 73 percent in 1996). By 2015, almost 15 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity is projected to be built in the high fossil case to replace generation from two large nuclear units assumed to be retired early, to replace some of the reduction in hydroelectric generation, and to meet increased demand for electricity. In the low fossil case, 4 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity is built.
- Much of the increased generation in the region comes from new natural gas-fired turbines and combined-cycle units. The level of gas-fired generation varies with the outlook for renewable generation.
- With the renewable portfolio standard in the low fossil case, generation of electricity from is 6.5 billion kWh higher than 1996 levels in 2005 and 40.5 billion kWh higher in 2015. This growth, which results from geothermal, biomass, solar, and wind resources, more than offsets the decline in hydroelectric generation.
- In 2015, natural gas consumption increases by 0.8 to 1.1 quadrillion Btu above 1996 levels and coal consumption is 0.6 to 1.2 quadrillion Btu higher than in 1996.
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