NEMS Models
Other EIA Models
NEMS Contacts

Download the entire report in PDF format

Related Links

Forecasts Publications
EIA Publications

UMM-PC is a microeconomic simulation model in which uranium supplied by the mining and milling industry and from excess inventories is used to meet the demand for uranium by electric utilities with nuclear power plants. The input data includes every major power production center and utility on a worldwide basis. The model provides annual projections for each of the 16 major uranium consumption and production regions in the world, including Eastern Europe and the Republics of the Former Soviet Union. Presently, UMM-PC is being used by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to generate projections of uranium prices, production, imports, inventories for the United States through 2010. EIA has used these projections to analyze the potential effects on the uranium market of commercializing U.S. and Russian surplus defense inventories. Projections from UMM-PC have been used by U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program offices in their analyses of the potential economic impact of releasing DOE-held uranium into the market. Output from UMM-PC has also been used to support cooperative efforts between the United States and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency to assess long-term uranium supply and production capability.

Last Model Update:

July 1997

Part of Another Model?

None

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels
• Division: Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Division
• Model Contact: William Szymanski
• Telephone: (202) 426-1177
• E-Mail Address: William.Szymanski@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation of the Uranium Market Model (UMM-PC), DOE/OR-21400-H11 (Washington, DC, January 1993, revised December 1996).

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

• ORUMMPC — for the 1987 Viability Study
• ORUMM89 — Archived for Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry 1988: Viability Assessment
• ORUMM90 — Archived for Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry 1989: Viability Assessment
• ORUMM91 — Archived for the Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry 1990: Viability Assessment
• ORUMM92 — Archived for Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry 1991
• UMM93 — Archived for Domestic Uranium Mining and Milling Industry 1992
• UMM94 — Archived for World Nuclear Capacity and Fuel Cycle Requirements
• UMM95 — Archived for World Nuclear Outlook 1995
• UMM97 — Archived for Nuclear Power Generation and Fuel Cycle Report 1997.

Coverage:

• Geographic: World
• Time Unit/Frequency: Annually
• Product(s): Natural uranium
• Economic Sector(s): 16 buyer and producer regions worldwide.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: Uranium supplied by the mining and milling industry is matched to the demand for uranium by electric utilities possessing nuclear power plants. Equations are listed in Chapter II, "Technical Specifications," of the Model Documentation Report
• Modeling Technique: Microeconomic simulation model
• Special Features: None.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• Nuclear Industry Status Report, A Fuel-Trac Product, Volume 2 (U308), NAC International, February 1997
  • Country name
  • Supplier name
  • Utility name
  • Non-U.S. inventories
  • Unmet world demand
  • Production committed to utility in a simulation year and succeeding year
  • Country committed to sell to
• Estimates of Behavior, Management and Market Data, Nuclear Resources International (February 1984), for Oak Ridge National Laboratory
  • Years of desired uranium inventory
• Consulting reports on non-U.S. production centers by Energy Resources International, Inc.; NAC International; and Ux Consulting Company, LLC
  • Production center name
  • Country
  • Status
  • Initial production start year
  • Reserves
  • Production costs
  • Total capacity
  • Uncommitted capacity
  • Annual production
• The Nuclear Review, TradeTech, May 1997
  • Spot price
• Information provided by U.S. uranium producers to staff of the Energy Information Administration
  • Production center name
  • Current status
  • Production start year
  • Planned capacity expansions
• Federal Register, April and October, and as developments warrant
  • Department of Commerce's announcements related to import quotas.

DOE Data Input Sources:

Forms and Publications:

• Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-858, Uranium Industry Annual Survey
  • U.S. inventories
  • U.S. mill and plant capacities
  • U.S. production.

Models and Other:

• Energy Information Administration, PC version of the International Nuclear Model
  • Reactor requirements worldwide
• Energy Information Administration, U.S. uranium reserve database (SOPE file)
  • Reserves
  • Production costs.

Computing Environment:

• Hardware Used: IBM-compatible personal computer
• Operating System: MS DOS Version 2.0 or greater
• Language/Software Used: Pascal (compiled and linked using Borland Turbo Pascal 4.0)
• Memory Requirement: 640K
• Storage Requirement: 630K
• Estimated Run Time: On a Dell Optiplex GX pro pentium 200 operating at 200 MHZ under Windows 95: 2 seconds
• Special Features: Model requires a math coprocessor and a hard disk plus a version of DOS that is 2.1 or greater.