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The WEPS Transportation Energy Model is a structural accounting model for road, rail, air, domestic shipping, international shipping, and pipeline energy use. Estimates of growth in total energy use for each mode are built up from estimates of growth in travel (miles per year) and growth in energy intensity (energy use per mile). Projections of the mix of fuels used at the modal level are based on historical trends informed by country-specific analysis of potential shifts in the fuel mix. The transportation model generates mid-term (up to 2020) forecasts of transportation sector energy use as a component of WEPS. Utilizing the same regional macroeconomic and demographic projections as other WEPS components, it passes back to WEPS regional transportation sector energy use.

The model is designed to provide a flexible and accessible platform for energy analysis. Toward these ends it has been developed as an Excel spreadsheet. Defining a "model run" (for a given set of regional macroeconomic and demographic forecasts) consists of assigning values to key model parameters. The parameter values used for developing forecasts for the International Energy Outlook are archived as part of the WEPS model archival process.

Last Model Update:

August 1998

Part of Another Model?

World Energy Projection System (WEPS)

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
• Division: International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division
• Model Contact: Barry Cohen
• Telephone: (202) 586-5359
• E-mail Address: bcohen@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation Report: Transportation Energy Model of the World Energy Projection System, (DOE/EIA-M072(99)) (Washington, DC, July 1999)
http://www.eia.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m07299.pdf.

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

Archived as part of the World Energy Projection System (2001).

Coverage:

• Geographic: 22 Regions (United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Other Europe, Australasia (the latter defined as Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S. Territories), Former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China, India, South Korea, Other Developing Asia, Middle East, Africa, Brazil, Rest of Central and South America, Turkey)
• Time Unit/Frequency: Annual 1996 through 2020
• Product(s): Worldwide transportation energy consumption
• Economic Sector(s): Road, air, rail, inland water, international water, pipeline.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: An accounting framework of relationships concerning transportation energy consumption, economic and population growth, and structural changes in transport systems
• Modeling Technique: Considers historical trends in travel and efficiency relative to population and economic growth as well as potential major changes in the transport systems of the developing regions of the world (which may account for a large portion of future increases in transportation energy).

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• International Energy Agency, Balances and Statistics of OECD [Non-OECD] Countries (Paris)
  • Consumption of energy by fuel and transport mode.

DOE Input Sources:

None, beyond those utilized within WEPS.

Computing Environment:

Consists of Excel97 spreadsheet files run on an IBM compatible computer using Windows 95.