NEMS Models
Other EIA Models
NEMS Contacts

Download the entire report in PDF format

Related Links

Forecasts Publications
EIA Publications

The Personal Computer International Nuclear Model (PCINM) is a deterministic model used by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to project domestic and international nuclear energy requirements. The EIA uses the PCINM to project aggregate spent fuel discharges, fuel cycle requirements, on-line and year-end capacities, and electricity generation for domestic and foreign nuclear reactors on an annual basis, using a simple accounting technique. PCINM can be used to produce projections for any country in the world for any specified time period. Currently, eight different country groups are being projected through the year 2020. To produce the forecasts, EIA develops a set of operational assumptions for capacity factors, full power days, reactor size, and reload quantities. These assumptions are derived statistically from historical operating data and from utilities' projected fuel management schemes and are incorporated into fuel management plans. Estimates of nuclear fuel cycle trends are determined by surveying utilities, fuel vendors, and other industry experts.

Last Model Update:

July 1992

Part of Another Model?

No

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels
• Division: Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Division
• Model Contact: Roger Diedrich
• Telephone: (202) 426-1176
• E-Mail Address: roger.diedrich@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

• Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements System, Benchmarking Procedures Report; Z, Inc. (January 15, 1992)
• Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements System, Program Specifications for Fuel Cycle Requirements Forecasting; Z, Inc. (August 23, 1991)
• Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements System, Phase I Development; Z, Inc. (March 1, 1991)
• International Nuclear Model: Volume 1, Model Overview; David A. Andress (March 1985)
• International Nuclear Model: Volume 2, Database Relationships; David A. Andress (April 1985)
• International Nuclear Model: Volume 3, Program Description; David A. Andress (June 1985)
• International Nuclear Model Personal Computer (PCINM), Z, Inc., DOE/EIA-M051 (92), (Washington, DC, September 1993).

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

• PCINM92 — for the World Nuclear Capacity and Fuel Cycle Requirements
• PCINM93 — for the World Nuclear Capacity and Fuel Cycle Requirements.

Coverage:

• Geographic: Any country or predefined country group (user specified, limited to data availability)
• Time Unit/Frequency: Specified by user or on an annual basis, no limitation on number of years
• Product(s): Nuclear fuel cycle requirements, spent fuel discharges, electrical generation projections, and on-line and year-end capacities
• Economic Sector(s): Electric commercial utility sector with emphasis on the nuclear fuel-cycle requirements.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: Deterministic model based upon factual input data and scenario assumptions. Derives cycle-by-cycle, reactor-by-reactor interim values to determine final annual projections of uranium and enrichment requirements, spent fuel discharges, electricity generation, and on-line and year-end capacities
• Modeling Technique: Accounting method on an annual — basis there is only one correct solution for a given set of input data and selected scenario assumptions
• Special Features: Flexible analysis of fuel management capabilities.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• NAC International, Norcross, GA
  • "U3O8 Status Report," "Enrichment Status Report," "Discharge Fuel/Reprocessing Report"
  • Foreign core size, capacity factors, full power days, reload fraction, U235 enrichment assay
• Nuclear Regulatory Commission
  • Domestic reactor capacity factors, nominal capacity, reload fraction, and U235 enrichment assay
• Nucleonics Week, Washington, DC
  • Foreign capacity factors.

DOE Data Input Sources:

Forms and Publications:

• Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Form RW-859, Nuclear Fuel Data
  • Electric utility survey data used to set starting inventory levels of spent fuel
  • Survey data used to determine and update reactor near-term operating characteristics
• Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy
  • Tails assay estimates.

Models and Other:

• Energy Information Administration, World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES)
  • Projects long-term nuclear generating capacities worldwide.

Computing Environment:

• Hardware Used: IBM compatible 386, VGA monitor, 40 Mb hard drive, math coprocessor, printer
• Operating System: DOS 3.3 or higher
• Language/Software Used: CLIPPER (version 5.01), dBASE IV, C
• Memory Requirement: 7 Mb RAM
• Storage Requirement:
  • For Databases, Program Library, and CLIPPER EXE files: 2 Mb
  • For temporary and memory files: TBD upon final benchmarking results
• Estimated Run Time: Approximately 4 minutes per scenario
• Special Features: None.